Mexico presented its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in which it commits to reducing its current net emissions of millions of tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) by 2035 by 31 to 37%. He also added a conditional target of financing, technology transfer and capacity building through international cooperation that could increase the reduction from 38 to 43%.
Mexico could achieve a level of net emissions of between 332 and 363 MtCO2e, subject to the mobilization of finance, technology transfer and capacity building through international cooperation.
Although Mexico's goal is acceptable to civil society organizations such as the Mexican Center for Environmental Law (Cemda), they also point out that no actions have been taken in line with this in national climate policy, mainly from the energy sector.
“At the national level, the real fulfillment of the goals does raise some doubts when we still have a highly fossilized energy matrix. The intention (to comply with them) is perceived, but rather what is concerned is the implementation so that the energy matrix is defossilized through renewable sources. I think there is quite a significant challenge there,” said Anaid Velasco, manager of research and public policy at Cemda.
Fossil fuels at COP30
Demonstration against fossil fuels in the blue zone of COP30. Source: Daniela Reyes.
NDC 3.0 was released during the second week of the thirtieth Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (COP30) in Brazil, where the road map to eliminate fossil fuels has become the center of the debate.
“Now is the time to focus on how we do it in a fair and orderly manner, focusing on what agreements to attack, to accelerate the tripling of renewable energy and double energy efficiency,” said Simon Stiell, executive secretary of UN Climate Change in his speech on the first day of COP30.
Mexico plays an important role because, during the second week of the COP, it will be facilitating negotiations on energy transition with Poland, which is expected to create the Belém Action Mechanism (BAM), a just transition mechanism - to move from fossil fuels to clean energy - that protects people and nature and promotes social justice. It was proposed by the G77+China, a group of 134 developing countries and, since then, it has gained more and more sympathizers among the parties.
This mechanism would respond to what was agreed by the parties at COP28 in Dubai (2023), where governments committed to moving away from fossil fuels in energy systems.
“We have an obligation to comply with the orderly, fair and equitable release of fossil fuels. This is the first step that all states worldwide have to take, and Latin America is not left out of it. The second step is the entry into systems based on clean energy and energy efficiency. Initiatives such as the fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty can be useful and a signal to affirm that the United Nations is still working for climate justice,” said Javier Dávalos, climate policy leader at The Climate Reality Project during a press conference on the second day of COP30.
“The growth of renewable energy is extraordinary, but it must be matched by a rapid and fair elimination of fossil fuels,” Rachel Cleetus, of the Union of Concerned Scientists, said at a press conference.
According to Dávalos, Latin America is an area with a lot of public and private investment for fossil fuel projects such as gas, which has generated serious environmental and social impacts.
“Latin America doesn't need a so-called transition fuel to switch to clean energy. Fossil gas is not a transition, it is a delay, and Latin America must speak up to avoid the impacts of the fossil gas projects that communities from Sonora in Mexico to Vaca Muerta in Argentina, through the Amazon rainforest, are suffering. It's not a just transition,” Dávalos said.
The fossil industry in Mexico
Mexico fell one place and ranked 39th in the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) in 2025, an initiative developed by the Latin American and Caribbean Climate Finance Group (GFLAC), which evaluates the climate action of 63 countries and the European Union, which together are responsible for more than 90% of global emissions. The analysis focuses on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, renewable energy, energy consumption and climate policy.
In addition, it was classified as having a “low” overall performance due to a “high” rating in energy consumption, “average” in GHG emissions, “low” in climate policy and “very low” in renewable energy, considering the investment to open two refineries and the continuous expansion of gas pipelines in the north and southeast of the country, the CCPI said on its website.
The three sectors that concentrate the highest GHG emissions — transportation (23%), electric power generation (19%) and industry (18%) — hold this position due to the use of fossil fuels, according to Mexico's NDC 3.0. While the oil and gas sector is responsible for another 8% of national emissions from the extraction, refining and transportation of hydrocarbons. In total, hydrocarbons contribute to 68% of GHG emissions.
Mexico's main strategies to combat this and achieve GHG reduction are found in Plan Mexico, a national strategy that seeks to position the country among the ten largest economies in the world and strengthen production chains in key sectors such as the automotive, aerospace and pharmaceutical industries.
Some projects that are part of the NDC and Plan Mexico are, in the transport sector: the “Wellness Routes”, which consist of ten projects for the electrification of public transport in Nuevo León, Mexico City, Jalisco, Guanajuato, Michoacán, Tamaulipas, Aguascalientes, Guerrero and Oaxaca; the design and assembly of electric vehicles produced in Mexico such as Olinia and Taruk; and the promotion of railway infrastructure based on clean energy such as the Maya Train.
In the electric energy sector, it establishes that it will seek to strengthen public companies in the energy sector such as Petrleos Mexicanos (Pemex) and the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE); and that it will fulfill the commitments established in the NDC, together with the private sector, through the incorporation of clean energy and the replacement of high-carbon fuels with gas.
Fossil fuels in the budget
Source: Daniela Reyes.
Civil society organizations such as Oxfam reported that the Government of Mexico continues to promote a national policy that is misaligned with international climate commitments to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, as committed at COP27.
“The budget reflects priorities. Today, neither Semarnat, nor the protection of the environment, nor the restoration of ecosystems, nor the reduction of emissions, nor the energy transition, nor the fight against the climate crisis are reflected as a priority in it,” said Jorge Martínez, coordinator of the Climate Justice Program at Oxfam Mexico.
For example, the Federal Expenditure Budget Project (PPEF 2026), approved on November 4, still strengthens Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex), a state company that produces, transports, refiners and markets oil and fossil gas, which received 7.7% more budget than allocated the previous year.
According to a report by the Climate Crisis and Public Budget Observatory in Mexico, Transverse Annex 16 of the PPEF —which groups resources allocated to actions against climate change—no longer funds the Federal Electricity Commission's Natural Gas Transportation Services program. However, this program continues to receive resources through other branches and annexes of the budget.
“An energy policy that favors the use of fossil fuels and aims to exacerbate the climate crisis is being maintained. Gas projects must stop being financed with public resources,” the report states.
In addition, Velasco points out that the budget does not seem aligned since it is not investing in renewable energy in line with the goal of achieving 38.5% of electricity generation from clean sources by 2030 established in NDC 2.0, and 43.3% by 2035 established in NDC 3.0, through seven wind projects, nine photovoltaic projects and five combined cycle projects (which work with fossil gas).
“We don't see such clear signs through public funding for renewable energy or support for aspects of infrastructure that can facilitate their entry, such as transmission lines. Many people say that renewable energy is not reliable, but how much are you investing to generate that stability or reliability of the electrical system?” , Velasco points out.
Therefore, for the goal of mitigation and zero emissions to be met, according to Martínez, it is necessary to stop building new projects based on fossil fuels, that subsidies to this sector be redirected to accelerating the transition to renewable energy and ensuring that this transition is just.
Other issues relevant to the transition agenda during COP30, according to Velasco, have been the reduction of methane emissions in the energy and waste sector, the global mitigation goal considering all countries' NDC 3.0, and the creation of the Tropical Forests Forever Fund (TFFF), which aims to raise 125 billion dollars to reward countries that succeed in stopping deforestation.
News from the Mexican NDC
Mexico's NDC 2.0, presented in 2022, included two components for climate action: mitigation and adaptation. One of the biggest updates for NDC 3.0 is the addition of three more components: loss and damage, means of implementation and enabling conditions, and a cross-cutting climate policy.
The component on enabling conditions and means of implementation seeks to eliminate regulatory and coordination barriers that prevent effective implementation, and ensure the mobilization of resources, technologies and capacities.
The loss and damage component addresses key measures such as response protocols to extreme weather events, the design of mechanisms for risk transfer -such as parametric insurance- and, crucially, attention to migration linked to the impacts of climate change.
The new NDC includes cross-cutting components such as a gender perspective, a human rights approach and the just transition of the workforce, and intergenerational equity in the implementation of climate action.
With regard to adaptation, which was already in place since the 2022 NDC, measures are now being strengthened in the five axes established at that time (communities and territory; productive systems, resilient ecosystems and food security; biodiversity and ecosystem services; water resources and strategic infrastructure). In addition to them, there is a new axis on the link between climate change and security, in order to prevent and address socio-environmental conflicts in a timely manner.
“We still have time to reach and safeguard the 1.5-degree goal, but the window of opportunity is closing. Today, more important than ever, it is imperative that the COP conclude with a clear political signal of our determination to correct the development model and course,” said Bárcena during the Climate Summit.
This report was produced within the framework of Climate Tracker Latin America's COP30 coverage program, with support from Oxfam.
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