Faced with the threat of the President of the United States, Donald Trump, to impose a 25% tariff on products from Mexico, Luis Fernando Haro, director general of the National Agricultural Council (CNA), believes that it will be difficult for the imposition to take place on March 4.
“We see it difficult that, at least, in the agricultural sector an issue of the imposition of tariffs can be specified. It doesn't mean that we want it to prevail for other sectors. It's simply asking who is right for and who would be affected by an issue of tariffs,” Haro said in an interview with Causa Natura Media.
The economic sanction, originally scheduled to be lifted on February 4, was postponed a month before it came into force. The U.S. president's tariff threat seeks to force Mexico to reinforce migration and security measures on the border between the two countries.
Haro acknowledged that the agri-food sector's commercial dependence on the United States maintains a tense environment. A possible approval of tariffs would generate an increase in prices and, consequently, a fall in demand for products.
Gabriela Siller Pagaza, director of economic analysis at Grupo Financiero BASE, agrees that the food sector would be the least suitable for implementing this measure.
“Food is the sector where tariffs could last the least, because what has to do with food and the automotive industry hits inflation (in the United States) and that would create great pressure on Trump to remove them quickly,” Siller explained.
On the Mexican side, the more basic the products are, the less sensitive they will be to the increase. However, in general terms, if President Trump decided to apply the measure, for Mexico “it would be catastrophic,” said the economist.
“About 26% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) depends directly on exports to the United States. This is because 35% of GDP are exports, of which approximately 83% go to the United States. This would raise the exchange rate, first, to 23 pesos per dollar and then to record highs before the end of the year,” Siller said.
The tariffs would result in a collapse in Mexican exports and in the foreign investment that exists in Mexico, leading the country's economy to a recession. At the same time, it would affect consumers in the United States due to the increase in prices.
According to figures from the CNA, during 2024, Mexico's exports from the agricultural sector were around 54.5 billion dollars. Of the total, more than 80% went to the United States.
“If the (tariff) measure were to take place, in the very short term there would be a strong impact... However, I think we do have to rethink how to diversify the markets and the products we are exporting. This regardless of the decision that is made (in the United States),” Haro said.
Dialogue and other measures
Although the decision to impose tariffs was delayed for a month, on February 10, the US president applied tariffs of 25% to all steel and aluminum imports, with Canada and Mexico being his two main exporters.
During this time, the CNA has held meetings with the Secretariat of Economy and the Undersecretary of Foreign Trade to address the tariff issue and establish agreements on the revision of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC).
“Actually, we see greater openness in the new administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum and her cabinet. A cabinet of people that we see with greater preparation, with greater capacity, with whom we can sit at the table and talk, although it is true that they are government decisions, the opinions of the economic and productive sectors are taken into account because of the impact that any measure could have,” Haro explained.
Regarding food security for the population, the director of the CNA added that, at this time, there is regional capacity to supply the populations of North America.
“We think that in the agricultural sector there is something very important: there is no region with greater food security in the world than the relationship and agreement that the United States, Mexico and Canada have. It is an issue that gives peace of mind to the entire population so that these three countries can count on enough food to guarantee supply for the entire population,” he concluded.
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