“A complex problem requires a multiplicity of solutions, not a solution,” said Roberto Rondanelli, an academic in the Department of Geophysics at the University of Chile, about the Chilean government's decision to increase rainfall by bombing or planting clouds.
This measure aims to increase rainfall to remedy the drought faced by the Coquimbo region, in northern Chile. The technique has been used before, but this would be the first time that a company from Mexico has been hired.
Cloud bombardment consists of spreading, from an airplane, a solution of silver iodide. This compound passes through the vapor in the clouds and sticks to the molecules, which converts this vapor into water to generate precipitation.
However, this technique is not sufficient to remedy the drought problem. According to Rondanelli, it has never been possible to establish with certainty that cloud seeding will result in a significant increase in rainfall.
“There is a lot of research, both on the ground and on computer models that simulate the effect of cloud seeding on rain. It is believed that there is a positive effect whose magnitude is close to a 5% or 10% increase in precipitation, but that increase is small and when it comes to demonstrating it on the ground it is very difficult to do”, explained the academic.
Silver iodide is dispersed through airplanes. Photo: Csegedi Joszef/Pexels
In other countries such as Mexico, cloud planting has been carried out since the 1950s. And although at the time it was considered an effective measure, currently, specialists from the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Change (ICAYCC) of the National Autonomous University of Mexico have reported that it is not enough.
“Although it can theoretically cause clouds to precipitate, there is no scientific evidence that these techniques work in areas of economic importance such as those in the north of the country (Mexico), where in times of drought there are no clouds and there is high livestock production that requires rain,” acknowledged Fernando García García, researcher at the ICAYCC, during a seminar on the subject.
For its part, Israel is another country that has carried out studies regarding cloud seeding. And it has concluded that there is no effectiveness necessary to counteract the drought, so the government decided to suspend its program indefinitely.
Other factors
“A second consideration (about cloud seeding) is that the increase in rainfall is relative to the increase in precipitation that falls. The problem is that in a dry year, the increase in precipitation that can be caused by cloud seeding is very small because it is a percentage of what rains. If there is little rain, that percentage will be small. It's paradoxical, but cloud seeding would work better in a rainy year than a dry year,” explained Roberto Rondanelli regarding the operation of this technique in Chile.
Regarding the decision of the Chilean government, as well as other countries, to continue implementing cloud seeding, Rondanelli indicated that it is something that cannot be answered with science alone. All the more so considering that there are cultures in Latin America that see rain as a reason for rite or celebration.
“When a government is faced with this tremendous (water) crisis, it uses anything that can give a little optimism to the population regardless of whether it works or not, whether it is certain about its operation or not. And that's an anthropological question that has nothing to do with science,” said the academic.
However, the specialist pointed out that everything goes beyond rainfall and that other measures must be taken in terms of consumption.
“Complex problems can't be solved with a silver bullet. There is no single solution to reverse the problem. Cloud seeding appears like the silver bullet that will solve the problem for us when the problem is multi-causal and therefore has multiple solutions,” he concluded.
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