This Friday, November 21, during the thirtieth Conference of the Parties to Climate Change (COP30), which was emerging as “the COP of adaptation”, the presidency presented in a draft of the final decision the adoption of the list of indicators, which seek to strengthen advocacy processes for the implementation of the Global Adaptation Objective and guide the construction of countries' National Adaptation Plans (NAP).
However, despite strong social and some countries' demands for including a commitment to triple the funding goal of the Adaptation Fund, the draft decision only includes a call on developed countries to strive to triple their contributions.
According to a report, 144 countries have started the process of formulating their NAPs, but only 67 developing countries have submitted them. Mexico joins COP30 with a new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) 3.0 and with a NAP under construction, which could adopt the list of indicators, but which will face, like many of these plans, the challenge of funding to implement them, according to Daniel Porcel, a climate policy specialist at the Talanoa Institute in Brazil.
Building Resilience
Mexico has been increasing its vulnerability in recent years, according to the Global Adaptation Index of the University of Notre Dame, where it is ranked 100th out of 187, when it ranked 95th in 2020.
In this context, beyond identifying a country's vulnerabilities and risks in the face of climate change, NAPs must propose a plan for the future that reduces vulnerabilities and increases resilience, according to Porcel.
Currently, Mexico's National Institute for Ecology and Climate Change (INECC) is developing its National Adaptation Policy with Readiness support from the Green Climate Fund (FVC), which, according to Rebecca Thyssen, responsible for global advocacy at Climate Action Network (CAN) International, is a multilateral fund that capitalizes on the resources provided by developed countries.
With funding of 2.8 million dollars, the INECC began designing the NAP in May with a deadline of 36 months.
“It's at a very early stage,” said Celia Pigueron, general coordinator of Adaptation to Climate Change and Ecology at INECC, who is in charge of designing the Mexican NAP.
Currently, they are working in collaboration with the UNAM Climate Change Research Program (PIC) and are about to start working groups and regional dialogues in the territories with all the sectors involved in each axis of NDC 3.0, and he assured that they intend to have a draft by the end of 2026.
The axes to be followed are: prevention and attention of negative impacts; resilient productive systems and food security; conservation, restoration and sustainable use of ecosystem services; protection of strategic infrastructure and tangible cultural heritage; and integrated management of water resources with a focus on climate change.
However, Mexico is building its NAP while three major issues are being discussed at the COP: the incorporation of the adaptation indicators that guide the design of NAPs, the tripling of the Adaptation Fund and the way in which countries report the implementation of their NAPs.
Voluntary and unfunded indicators
Photo taken after Hurricane Otis in Acapulco, Mexico in 2023. Source: Government of Mexico.
The initial list of 100 indicators was reduced and it is proposed to adopt them in the draft of the final decision on the adaptation of COP30, which was published on November 21.
However, it is emphasized that they are voluntary, do not create a new funding obligation, and establish a two-year policy alignment plan.
The indicators can serve as a guide for the preparation of countries' NAPs according to their vulnerabilities.
“Indicators are being presented to enable NAPs to monitor their vulnerability characteristics, to integrate it into the multilateral framework and to have a little more coherence and access to funding,” said Porcel.
Pigueron noted that Mexico has a willingness to adopt them in the construction of its NAP.
One of the arguments that hindered the consensus between the Parties to approve the indicators was the issue of funding, since ministers from countries such as Uruguay, Chile, Guatemala, Peru, Mexico and Costa Rica explained at a press conference during COP30 that, in addition to the indicators, it is necessary to approve the increase in the budget in order to comply with them.
However, the drive to triple the Adaptation Fund, unlike the indicators, was not included as an agreement in the draft of the presidency of COP30.
“We're at a stage where we have plans, but we can't implement. Nobody wants to give more money to developing countries. It's not enough to submit plans to the convention platform, but they really need to land in people's daily lives. Without funding, we run the risk of having a list of indicators that is an Excel table and a national plan that is a piece of paper,” said Porcel.
Mexico presented its first Communication on Adaptation in 2022, a report that countries that adhere to the Paris Agreement submit to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to share their priorities, advances, challenges and needs in terms of adaptation to climate change.
In this document, Mexico noted that the costs of hydrometeorological disasters amounted to 35,372 million dollars during the period 2000-2020. According to Semarnat, Hurricane Otis represented a federal investment of 3 million dollars to serve the affected population on the Pacific coast of Mexico in October 2023.
In addition, the country faces significant economic losses resulting from climate change, particularly in key sectors such as agriculture, health and water resources. During 2024-2030, it is estimated that the value of accumulated losses could be equivalent to 25% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2024, according to NDC 3.0.
During COP30, the Adaptation Fund mobilized around 135 million dollars in new funding pledges, with contributions from Germany, Spain, Sweden, Ireland, Luxembourg, Switzerland, the Walloon region of Belgium, South Korea and Iceland.
Despite this, the figure is still far from the goal of 300 million dollars by 2025, necessary to triple assistance by 2030 — as agreed at COP29 — and to serve a portfolio of projects under development that already exceeds one billion dollars.
In this context, Pigueron noted that Mexico is exploring ways to capitalize in order to undertake its NAP.
“Like other countries, we don't have enough funding for implementation, but at this design stage we can articulate portfolios and strategies for the private sector, because they are so responsible but they are also affected by climate change. So, we're looking to issue bonds, even an adaptation bond that I don't think exists and we have to design it,” he explained.
Civil society and a group of developing countries are fighting for the tripling of funding to be presented in the final decision as an agreement, as this would help finance projects and implement NAPs.
“In a complicated geopolitical context, where the United States is leaving the Paris Agreement, where developed countries are investing more money in wars than in climate, we need the assurance that we are not going to have less money for adaptation, because in the end adaptation is also about lives, and when we talk about lives and ecosystems we cannot leave anyone behind,” said Porcel.
This report was produced within the framework of Climate Tracker Latin America's COP30 coverage program, with support from Oxfam.
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