Predictive Analytics for Forecasting Illegal Fishing Risks in Mexico

Illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing affects the sustainability of global fisheries. According to the Environmental Defense Fund, in Mexico it is estimated that illegal fishing could represent about 56 percent of national production. Such a high level of IUU fishing reduces competitiveness in the market, threatens food security and damages the economic viability of the local fishing sector. Under the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime Index, Mexico has the highest level of illegal fishing in all of North America, Central America and the Caribbean, the Eastern Pacific and the Western Atlantic; Mexico ranks as the fourteenth country in the world with the highest incidence of illegal fishing.

Fishing in Mexico represents a source of livelihood for more than 295,000 people who work directly in the fishing and aquaculture sector. The value of its annual production is approximately 39 billion pesos and it has grown at an annual rate of 5 percent from 2011 to 2017. Effective monitoring, control and surveillance is key to ensuring that domestic fish production is carried out in a legal and sustainable manner.

With the objective of designing tools based on data analysis that contribute to addressing public problems and that in turn strengthen relations with the Mexican government and the fishing sector, Causa Natura is leading a collaboration with Pronatura Noroeste and Global Fishing Watch to build a predictor of illegal fishing risk that identifies areas of interest where illegal fishing could be occurring. This predictor will serve to identify the places and times most susceptible to illegal fishing, thus supporting the implementation of better inspection and surveillance strategies to prevent it. This will be a tool based on data analysis and remote sensing technology that will have a practical application in the field so that fishing managers in Mexico can combat illegal fishing.

This collaboration incorporates data from small-scale fishing, a sector to which approximately 97 percent of registered vessels in Mexico belong. And although IUU fishing activities occur in both deep sea and small-scale fishing, it has historically been much more difficult to have data to evaluate illegal fishing for the latter.

The Satellite Location and Tracking System for Fishing Vessels in Mexico is mainly used by approximately 2,000 vessels that are part of the industrial fishing sector, leaving out 97 percent of the vessels registered in Mexico; which are mostly small-scale vessels that are not tracked or regularly monitored. Therefore, it is extremely important to promote the use of monitoring technologies and analytical techniques that provide greater capacity to identify and prevent illegal fishing.

The first step in developing this tool will be to create an illegal fishing risk predictor specifically for the pilot zone of Loreto, Baja California Sur. The predictor will include social, economic, ecological and geographical information regarding small-scale fishing events previously identified by the National Commission for Protected Natural Areas (Conanp) as illegal. This includes information, both spatial and temporal, on mainly coastal and sports-recreational fisheries in the area. As a next step, we will seek to build a model that predicts the places and dates with the highest risks of illegal fishing. Depending on the available data, this tool will be adapted for other areas of Mexico.

The illegal fishing risk predictor will serve both the government and Mexican fishing communities, facilitating the prioritization of inspection and surveillance in areas and times most vulnerable to illegal fishing; contributing to the better management of scarce material and human resources. In addition, we hope that this project will serve as an example of how inspection and surveillance in the fishing sector can be strengthened with the availability of data on fisheries and marine resources.

If you are interested in learning more about this project, you can contact us at info@causanatura.org

Global Fishing Watch is an international non-profit organization committed to advancing ocean sustainability through greater transparency. Leveraging cutting-edge technology, our mapping platform allows anyone to view or download data and investigate global fishing activity in near real time and for free. GFW was founded in 2015 through a collaboration between Oceana, SkyTruth and Google. The work of GFW is possible thanks to the generous support of our funding partners and our technology and data providers. globalfishingwatch.org

Causa Natura is a non-profit civil organization that began operating in 2014 with an interest in the development of rural communities. Through applied research, communication using information technologies and collaboration and advocacy, CN promotes transparent, participatory public policies on natural resources that allow accountability under a human rights approach.

Pronatura Noroeste is the regional representation of the Pronatura National System, the oldest and largest conservation organization in Mexico. Its mission is the conservation of the flora, fauna and priority ecosystems of northwestern Mexico, to promote the development of society in harmony with nature. Since 2010, it has been collaborating with authorities, communities and civil organizations to increase compliance with regulations in protected natural areas and fishing areas. www.pronatura-northwest.org